Macro analyst Luke Gromen, once a vocal Bitcoin proponent, has turned cautious. In a recent podcast, he warned of short-term risks based on macroeconomic and technical signals. However, experts from the crypto world are not convinced by his analysis.
Related: ‘Bitcoin cyclus verschuift mogelijk naar 2026 wegens deze redenen’
In Short #
- Macro analyst Luke Gromen, previously positive on Bitcoin, now warns of short-term risks and a potential drop towards $40,000 in 2026.
- He bases his analysis on Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold, technical signals, and the growing discussion around ‘quantum risk’.
- Other crypto analysts are unconvinced, calling his arguments weak and more based on market sentiment than on fundamental data.
Macro Analyst Gromen Puts Bitcoin on the Sidelines #
Luke Gromen, a well-known name in macroeconomic analysis, has abandoned his positive short-term outlook on Bitcoin. Gromen, who previously positioned Bitcoin alongside gold as a hedge against currency debasement, now sees the situation differently. He explained this in the ‘RiskReversal’ podcast.
According to him, gold and certain stocks are currently better ways to play the so-called ‘debasement trade,’ a strategy that anticipates the devaluation of traditional currencies. While he remains positive on this theme in the long run, he tactically advises reducing Bitcoin positions. “Basically everything except gold and the dollar will likely suffer damage,” Gromen stated.
Related: Veroorzaakte financiële reus Jane Street de bitcoin koersdaling van gisteren?
Three Reasons for the Turn #
Gromen gives three reasons for his changed view. First, Bitcoin’s performance continues to lag behind that of gold. Second, he signals negative technical indicators, such as the breaking of key moving averages on the price chart.
His third point is the growing narrative around ‘quantum risk.’ This is the theoretical threat that future, extremely powerful quantum computers could crack the cryptographic security of Bitcoin. Although most experts believe this is technologically still far off, the increasing discussion about it could negatively influence sentiment.
Crypto Analysts Dismiss Arguments #
Gromen’s analysis is called “not well thought out” by analyst Sina BI Report on X. The analyst is far from convinced by Gromen’s statements and offers criticism:
None of the reasons Luke gave for his bearish position were well thought out – quantum: i don’t get it but some people are worried – recent performance: its not making new high vs gold (good argument for selling at the bottom) – TA: moving averages broken (meaningless signal)… https://t.co/8yABsHRFvv — Sina 🗝️⚡ BI Report (@Snz_BTC) December 15, 2025
On-chain analyst ‘Checkmate’ agrees with the above X post and states that much of Gromen’s evidence appears to come “from X-narratives instead of underlying data.” According to him, the analyst is too influenced by social media sentiment rather than by fundamental market data.
The discussion exposes a fundamental difference in analysis. Where Gromen approaches the market from a macroeconomic perspective and focuses on relative performance and narratives, the critics concentrate primarily on the underlying data and crypto-specific indicators.