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The crypto market is on the verge of potential major movements. Arthur Hayes recently shared his striking expectations for bitcoin, based on important economic signals. At the same time, developments around the U.S. central bank and other financial factors are fueling new speculation. What does this mean for the future of crypto?
Hayes’ Prediction #
In a post on X, Hayes said he expects the $80,000 bottom for bitcoin to hold. According to him, the price might still fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000, but he sees big movements coming next year.
minor improvements in $ liq: – fed qt stops dec 1, this wed will prob be last fall in b/s – us banks increased lending in nov
we chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k’s but i think $80k holds. might start nibbling, but leave the bazooka until the new year
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 24, 2025
He bases this prediction on a number of macroeconomic factors. For instance, the U.S. central bank (Fed) will stop quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, a measure that reduces the money supply to curb inflation. Additionally, Hayes points to an increase in lending by U.S. banks.
When these two factors come together, more liquidity, i.e., more available money, will enter the market. This could encourage investors to put more money into the crypto market, from which both bitcoin and altcoins could benefit.
Earlier, on November 21, Hayes wrote that quantitative easing by the Fed was needed. According to him, tech stocks, including crypto, had to fall in value first before a recovery could occur. Only when more money becomes available will the market truly recover, in his view.
$BTC undershooting decline in $ liq. Bottom is near, but be patient before blowing your load. Wait for US stonks to puke as well. We are playing for more money printing, and for that we need AI tech stocks to crater. pic.twitter.com/ANMQcK1Uto
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 21, 2025
Fed Interest Rate #
The FedWatch platform, which tracks the probability of Fed rate cuts, predicts an 80 percent chance that the interest rate will be cut on December 10. Last week, that chance was 42 percent. A rate cut would be beneficial for the crypto market, according to experts, because lower rates encourage investors to take more risks and seek higher returns than government bonds offer.
Economist Surprised by Fed #
Economist Mohamed El-Erian expressed on X his surprise over the behavior of the U.S. central bank. He shared a Bloomberg chart showing that the probability of a rate cut dropped from 90 percent to 30 percent in a short time, only to return to around 70 percent.
El-Erian emphasized that the Fed, which is supposed to provide predictability and stability, is now showing the opposite. According to him, the bank is causing disruptions in the global payment system due to shutdowns and other problems, while lacking a clear strategic framework.