Bitcoin is showing something remarkable this year. While the stock market is performing strongly, the largest cryptocurrency is on track to close the year lower. For the first time in a decade, the two markets are clearly moving in separate directions. What’s going on?
Historical Separation Between Bitcoin and Stocks #
Recent market data shows that for the first time since 2014, Bitcoin has completely decoupled from the price movements of the S&P 500. The U.S. stock index has risen by more than sixteen percent this year, while Bitcoin has lost about three percent. Such a clear divergence is rare, as both markets usually move in the same direction. A user on X shared the following chart:
BREAKING: Bitcoin is headed for its first full-year split from stocks in over a decade, marking the first time since 2014 equities rallied while crypto fell. pic.twitter.com/Ns25xJ2KV2
— Short Squeez (@shortsqueeznews) December 7, 2025
The stock market is benefiting mainly from strong performances by companies in artificial intelligence. Investors are pouring a lot of money into that sector. In the crypto world, the picture is less positive. There have been large forced sell-offs, and many retail traders temporarily stepped back. This has put additional pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Cautious Optimism for the Crypto Market in 2026 #
Confidence in crypto has cooled recently. However, this decoupling also means Bitcoin is starting to behave more independently. For some investors, this could actually be an advantage, as it can reduce overall risk in a portfolio.
As the year-end approaches, the market remains quiet. Experts do not expect major price jumps in December. Data from the options platform Laevitas shows that many investors are anticipating limited movements, although there is slightly more optimism for a small increase.
Also factoring in is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Normally, this is beneficial for crypto, but due to the quiet holiday market, the effect is now limited. Trading volume is thin, and as a result, prices are moving less dramatically.
Sunny Outlook for the Long Term #
For the longer term, many investors are more optimistic. An increasing number of crypto traders are focusing on the first months of 2026, believing that prices will start to rise again then. This is reflected in options that expire later and are more heavily weighted towards higher prices.
Interest from major players in the financial world is also growing, evidenced in part by the introduction of crypto ETFs.
The decoupling between Bitcoin and stocks is a significant moment for the market. It shows that BTC is increasingly determining its own course. Investors are now looking ahead to 2026, hoping the new year will bring more direction and growth than the end of 2025.