I’ve been closely watching the Bitcoin market over the past few weeks, and what I’m seeing makes me cautious. After the heavy drop from $125,000 to $80,000, everyone seems to be getting optimistic again at the sight of a few green candles. “Bitcoin is back! A new all-time high is coming!” is the sentiment everywhere. Unfortunately, I see things differently.
What’s happening now doesn’t feel like the start of a new upward impulse, but rather like a classic bull trap: a temporary rally within a larger downtrend that ultimately leaves many people in deeper trouble.
A Structural Warning on the Bitcoin Chart #
What stands out to me is a specific structure in the Bitcoin chart that almost no one is talking about. It shows that in the worst-case scenario, we could still fall to around $40,000. While the masses are opening FOMO long positions at an apparently rising price, this bounce could simply be a lower high before the market drops further.
Looking at the current price action, we see that Bitcoin is currently facing resistance around $91,200. There is a chance of a further push higher, partly due to an expected interest rate cut in December. However, the volume gives a warning: the rise is accompanied by decreasing volume, which often indicates a fake pump that can reverse quickly.
Price Pattern and Crucial Zones #
On the weekly chart, a head-and-shoulders structure is visible, with a potential right shoulder around $100,000-$110,000. If this pattern fully plays out, the target could be around $48,000. This would correspond with the 200-day moving average and an important liquidity zone. It means we could see a temporary rise to $100,000, followed by a downward move that might only find its bottom late next year.
Additionally, I’m keeping a close eye on USDT dominance and the DXY dollar. A weakening dollar can be bullish for crypto, while a strong dollar can put pressure on the market. The liquidation heatmap also shows interesting zones between $85,000 and $86,000, where a higher low could be formed before the market potentially moves towards $100,000 or $110,000.
Stay Sharp and Trade Smart #
In short, the market is at a crucial turning point. For anyone serious about crypto, caution is advised. Opening FOMO long positions during a short rally can be dangerous, while trading smartly based on structure and resistance levels is much safer. The upcoming scenario heavily depends on interest rate expectations, but one thing is certain: this is the time to stay sharp and not follow the crowd.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in crypto or other financial products involves risks. Always make your own considerations and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.