The bitcoin market remains a topic of intense debate: are we still in the classic four-year cycle, or are we now part of a broader economic, so-called business cycle? In his latest video, Didi Taihuttu dives into this question. With his characteristic flair, he discusses recent developments surrounding banks, price analysis, and the power of mindset.
Photo: youtube.com/@bitcoinfamily
Banks Embrace Crypto, But With a Caveat #
Two notable news items took center stage. First, the European bank BBVA now offers bitcoin trading through its app, giving seventy million customers access to the crypto market. While this is positive news for adoption, Taihuttu warns:
“If you buy bitcoin through a bank, you don’t hold it yourself. No private keys means no ownership.”
Self-custody via a hardware or software wallet remains essential for true freedom, he argues. Also striking: banks are beginning to recommend bitcoin. For instance, a large Russian state bank advises clients to put seven percent of their wealth into bitcoin. Previously, Bank of America issued a similar recommendation. Taihuttu highlights the irony:
“The same institutions that once dismissed bitcoin are now promoting it.”
Four-Year Cycle or Longer Business Cycle? #
In the second half of his video, Taihuttu discusses various charts. According to the classic four-year cycle, the bitcoin price always reaches a peak about seventeen months after the halving (the halving of new bitcoin supply). This occurred in 2024, so a top in 2025 would be logical.
However, new data suggests the pattern is shifting toward a five-year business cycle. This would mean the real top won’t arrive until 2026. Various macroeconomic indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), point to us still being in a contractionary phase, without clear expansion.
Taihuttu remains cautious for now:
“As long as we close below one hundred thousand dollars in December, I still see it as a bear market within the four-year cycle.”
Yet, he keeps a small part of his focus on 2026:
“Thirty percent of me thinks: it could happen.”
Mindset Over Predictions #
Finally, Taihuttu concludes with an inspiring message: your reaction to events is more important than the events themselves. Whether bitcoin peaks in 2025 or 2026, those who employ a balanced strategy and keep their emotions in check will go the furthest. His motto:
“Don’t panic, but zoom out. Stay positive.”
Whether it’s a four-year or a business cycle: for true bitcoiners, the focus remains the same—hodl, keep learning, and stay calm during the storm.