Bitcoin has fallen sharply in recent weeks, but this decline may be coming to an end. The U.S. central bank could stimulate the economy in early December, which might boost Bitcoin. The probability of the bank cutting rates next month has surged.
Probability of Rate Cut Doubles #
December 10 is the day. On that day, the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), will announce whether it will lower interest rates. Last week, the chance seemed small, but data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now shows that 71% of investors believe it will happen.
The crypto market is watching closely, because rate cuts have historically been positive for crypto prices. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, which means more liquidity and makes risky investments like Bitcoin more attractive.
Last week, there was little hope for a rate cut. CME then reported that 46% of investors were preparing for a rate cut. The shift is therefore a positive signal.
The direct reason for the hope is a recent statement from the Fed. New York Fed President John Williams said he expects a rate cut during a speech in Chile on Friday. The reason is the weak U.S. labor market, which would benefit from lower rates.
Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin #
A shift is also occurring among retail crypto traders. Crypto trader Moritz shared on X that the probability of a rate cut has almost doubled from 31% to 59% on the crypto betting market Polymarket. He also sees a direct positive effect on Bitcoin, as the price rose by 3% during that time.
The odds of one more rate cut in 2025 just jumped from 31% to 59% on Polymarket.
Bitcoin already up 3% from the local low.
Let’s see if that’s enough to find a bottom here for now. — moritz (@onchainmo) November 21, 2025
“Let’s see if that’s enough to find a temporary bottom here,” Moritz said.
Crypto analyst and trader Jesse Eckel also expects a rate cut in December and wonders why Bitcoin isn’t already rising strongly. “I don’t understand why we keep falling, I’m really racking my brains over it,” he shared on X.
Eckel expects Bitcoin to reach new highs in 2026. According to him, several bullish factors will contribute, including institutional adoption. “The situation is unbelievably bullish,” Eckel said.