The chance that the U.S. central bank will lower interest rates in December has increased significantly. According to Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the American labor market has cooled sufficiently to justify such a move, Reuters reports. For crypto investors, this shift towards “cheaper money” is often an important signal.
The Signal for ‘Easy Money’ #
The probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut during the December 9-10 meeting is now estimated at 79%. Just a week ago, this figure was only 42%. This expectation is creating optimism in the financial markets.
Now a 79% probability of a rate cut in December, up from 42% a week ago. Stocks love easy money: S&P 500 +1%, Nasdaq 100 +1.7%, Mag 7 +2.5%. — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 24, 2025
Market strategist Mark Bilello succinctly captured the sentiment: “Stocks love easy money.” The stock market prices confirm this picture. The S&P 500 index rose by 1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posted a gain of 1.7%.
Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, also benefited. The gold price rose to $4,091 per ounce. Additionally, Bitcoin is showing green figures today, with the bitcoin price trading just below $88,000. This is 1% higher than it was 24 hours ago.
Cooling Economy Drives the Decision, Good News for Crypto? #
The primary reason for the expected rate cut is the cooling economy. Fed Governor Waller stated that the available data shows a clear trend. “The labor market is weak and continues to weaken,” said Waller. The unemployment rate in the U.S. recently rose to 4.4%.
Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate investment and spending. This can lead to more capital flowing into riskier assets, including stocks, bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, as investors search for higher returns than those offered by savings accounts.
However, the future remains uncertain. Waller warned that the decision-making process for January “could be a bit more difficult.” Due to a recent government shutdown, the release of important economic data has been delayed. The Fed will face a “flood of data” early next year that could change the picture again.
Summary #
- The chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 79%.
- The main reason is a weakening U.S. labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.4%.
- The expectation of “cheaper money” is causing a positive reaction in the stock and gold markets.
- This macroeconomic climate is considered favorable by many investors for risk assets like crypto.
The Federal Reserve will meet on December 9 and 10 to make an official decision on interest rates.