Foto: Arsenii Palivoda / Shutterstock.com
A new composite labor market indicator, built from data including layoff announcements, vacancy figures, corporate warnings, and mentions of job cuts in quarterly earnings, shows that the U.S. labor market is turning. The indicator, which has been well below zero (positive) in recent years, is now moving rapidly toward neutral. And that could have enormous consequences for the bitcoin price.
GS: Recent Alternative Data Also Point to a New Risk of Rising Layoffs pic.twitter.com/aKKd3n3rju
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) December 8, 2025
Broad Increase in Layoff Signals #
According to the data, companies are showing signs of pulling back on multiple fronts. For instance, references to layoffs in explanations of quarterly results are increasing. The number of WARN notices (mandatory layoff announcements), announced reorganizations, and reported layoffs via JOLTS are also on the rise.
Unemployment claims have so far lagged, but economists say this is typical: claims are often the last to react when the labor market turns.
Combined with other stress points—rising credit card and auto loan delinquencies, pressure on commercial real estate, and bankruptcy levels heading toward a 15-year high—a clearer picture emerges of an economy where higher interest rates are finally taking effect.
The Phase Where Companies Stop Holding On #
In recent years, employers preferred to hold onto staff rather than have to refill vacancies. Now that demand is weakening and costs are rising, that pattern is beginning to shift.
If the indicator moves above zero and stays there, it would historically be the point where the conversation in Washington, on Wall Street, and in corporate America shifts from “the labor market is resilient” to “the labor market is cooling down.” That phase now seems to be slowly coming into view.
Impact on Bitcoin’s Price #
A turning labor market can affect the crypto market in two ways:
-
Short term: risk-off pressure When layoffs increase and consumer spending slows, risk-averse behavior grows. This often has a negative impact on risk assets, including bitcoin. Position reductions, lower liquidity, and a potentially weaker stock market can create temporary downward pressure.
-
Medium term: chance of easing If the cooling continues, the likelihood increases that the Federal Reserve will have to ease policy faster or more aggressively. That could ultimately be positive for bitcoin, which historically responds strongly to periods of loose monetary policy.
The crucial factor remains the timeline: the labor market turns early in the cycle, but monetary support usually follows much later. This means that in the meantime, bitcoin could see both extra volatility and opportunities.
The indicator is not yet in the “red” zone, but the direction is clear. The labor market is beginning its turn, cautiously but inevitably. And as in previous cycles, the rest of the macro data will eventually follow this path. Will this still turn out okay?