Bitcoin recently surpassed the $90,000 mark, bringing relief to many traders who were pleased to see the cryptocurrency find its way back up. However, the recovery feels less solid than the price increase suggests. Blockchain data reveals that while the market may have found a floor, demand above that level is far from convincing.
Something significant is needed to establish a convincing BTC price rally. The only question is: what exactly?
Little Buying Interest for Bitcoin #
Bitcoin’s recovery is currently leaning heavily on the zone around $84,000. More than 400,000 BTC were previously purchased in this area, making it a strong foundation for the price. But as the bitcoin price moves towards $90,000, it becomes clear that there are far fewer buyers waiting above that level.
Order books show little active demand. As a result, the price moves without genuine buying pressure to support it. This is reflected in the past 24 hours, where the price has moved sideways between $92,000 and $90,500 without any clear directional movement.
This is problematic for a stable stay above $90,000. The market simply needs more real buying interest—not just investors holding what they already have, but people actively opening new positions. As long as that inflow remains limited, a drop back towards the lower end of the recent price range is looming.
Liquidity in the market is not helping either. Because bitcoin is trading below the average cost basis of short-term holders (around $64,600), many recent buyers are in the red. This creates nervousness in the crypto market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still stuck at ‘Extreme Fear’.
Data even shows that an average of about $400 million in losses are being realized daily. Only when this decreases and short-term holders get closer to their break-even point will the market calm down.
Futures Market Could Give Crypto Market a Boost #
The futures market also shows an unconvincing rise. The jump to $91,000 was primarily driven by investors with short positions (betting on a price decline) being forced to close their positions. This creates temporary upward buying pressure. However, this says little about genuine interest in buying bitcoin.
For a sustained rise, new long positions—where traders speculate on further price gains—are necessary. An increase in trading volume is also essential to support that trend.
Open interest, the total amount of outstanding futures positions, has been declining for weeks, and trading volume remains flat. Major players seem to prefer to wait and see. This means there is no clear majority of investors betting on a price increase (bulls) or a decrease (bears). The market is therefore in balance, with little sense of direction.
To turn this recovery into a real rally, traders must dare to build up long positions again. Additionally, volume needs to pick up without it being solely driven by the closing of shorts. Until then, the jump above $90,000 remains more of a cautious recovery than a convincing trend reversal.