The latest FOMC decision delivered a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. Yet, bitcoin’s reaction remained muted. In my analysis for December 11, I discuss why I believe the markets are still cautious, which patterns are repeating around previous FOMC meetings, and which price zones are now important.
Macro Signals and Crypto Liquidity #
The Fed’s dotplot showed little change, leaving significant uncertainty about what the central bank will do in 2025. On a positive note, the Fed intends to start buying Treasury bills again, reportedly for around forty billion dollars a month.
This acts as a form of quantitative easing, a way to keep liquidity in the system. However, the markets are not reacting convincingly positive. Future rate cuts seem less certain, which, in my view, brings a more bearish tone.
In the last four FOMC meetings, we consistently saw dumps of 5-12% in the days following. This time too, the bitcoin price formed a corrective pattern beforehand—a rising wedge or bear flag—after which selling pressure reappeared. That was my reason to open a short position.
Bitcoin: Patterns, Targets, and Risks #
Heatmaps on higher timeframes still show growth zones between $126,000 and $130,000. This doesn’t have to happen immediately; the price could first dip further towards the mid-$80,000 or even the $74,000 level to grab liquidity. On shorter timeframes, liquidity is primarily growing below the current price.
The futures chart shows that the gap has not yet been fully closed. A dip into the zone followed by a small bounce is common, but eventually, such a gap is often filled anyway. The overall picture looks bearish at the moment.
On the daily chart, a descending channel is in place, which could theoretically break out upwards towards $100,000-$110,000. But the recent double top, shooting star, and repeated testing of support levels now point to more red. My main scenario remains a drop towards $84,000 and possibly $74,000. I will only turn bullish again on a convincing climb above $93,000.
Ethereum’s Weak Price Action Despite Positive Pattern #
Ethereum previously broke out of a falling wedge, giving it a technical target around $4,770. But the current price action lacks strength. A gravestone doji and a rejection of the 50-moving average indicate further weakness.
For now, I am mainly watching $2,800 as the next zone. Losing that level opens the path to $2,300-$2,000. Only above $3,300, with a reclaim of the 50-moving average, does a move towards an ethereum price of $4,000-$4,770 come back into view.
The market is once again showing patterns we’ve seen around FOMC moments before. For now, the picture remains negative, unless important resistance zones are reclaimed. As always: patience is essential. The market offers opportunities, but only with a plan and realistic expectations.