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The price of Bitcoin is often compared to other cryptocurrencies. Far less frequently do analysts draw parallels with traditional markets. This is precisely what makes the latest analysis by crypto expert CrediBULL so noteworthy. He compared the price trajectory of Bitcoin to that of the S&P 500, and it turns out there are remarkable similarities between the two markets.
The U.S. stock index exploded after breaking out of a long corrective phase. According to CrediBULL, Bitcoin is now at that exact same inflection point. If his comparison holds true, the world’s largest cryptocurrency may only be at the beginning of a parabolic surge. The question, however, is: how strong is this comparative analysis really?
Comparison between BTC Price and S&P 500 #
In a detailed post on X, CrediBULL lays the price chart of Bitcoin alongside that of the Standard & Poor’s 500, abbreviated as S&P 500. It is also known by the ticker SPX. This index represents the top 500 stocks in the United States, excluding the tech-heavy NASDAQ. The charts show what he’s referring to:
The price of Bitcoin and the level of the Standard & Poor’s index. Source: CrediBULL (CredibleCrypto).
According to CrediBULL, the S&P 500 (SPX) reached a mid-cycle top that looked like a flat correction. This means that during that period, the price consistently made roughly the same highs and lows. This is indicated by the red box. Bitcoin showed a similar pattern in 2021–2022, the chart reveals.
S&P 500 Breakout Compared to Bitcoin #
Only after a breakout from the red box did a long period of rising prices begin in the U.S. stock market. This phenomenon is known as a bull market. Sometimes prices rose by tens of percent over ten to fifteen years, with an occasional temporary dip. For instance, the crypto market took heavy hits from the COVID-19 crisis and President Trump’s trade war.
Negative periods are also visible in the charts. The S&P 500 experienced a 61% pullback, while Bitcoin fell by 76% within the red box.
Buy or Sell Bitcoin? #
The crypto analyst points out that selling SPX stocks at the breakout from the red box would have been a costly mistake for an investor. Anyone who sold around $2,250 missed an impressive price rally.
CrediBULL argues that investors who focus purely on percentage declines often sideline themselves. This is because it’s not the only way to determine whether a bear market or bull market is occurring. It is precisely during such moments of doubt that the largest rallies often take place.
In his analysis, Bitcoin breaks out of the red box around the $70,000 mark. Subsequently, the real parabolic phase has yet to begin, the crypto analyst suggests. ‘Parabolic’ means the price rises enormously. The S&P 500 saw a rally of over 200% at the time. If Bitcoin enters the same phase, CrediBULL expects similar explosive price movements.
In the chart, the S&P 500’s strong rise is indeed visible. This is indicated by the black, rising dotted line. Bitcoin is currently moving along a long-term support line and is therefore not parabolic yet. Is that still to come? Opinions are divided.