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The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is resurfacing. This theory suggests a peak occurs every four years, followed by a severe correction. However, according to asset manager Grayscale, this pattern no longer holds true. The firm expects Bitcoin to set a new record high in 2026, despite the recent drop of over thirty percent.
Grayscale Sees Local Bottom for Bitcoin #
According to Grayscale, the recent decline of over thirty percent is not a sign of a prolonged bear market. Instead, the company sees signals that Bitcoin is forming a local bottom.
Additionally, much attention is focused on U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. In November, these funds still created significant selling pressure, with billions in outflows.
Yet, sentiment seems to be slowly turning. For the first time in weeks, consecutive days of inflows have been reported, including $8.5 million on a recent Monday. While these are not large amounts, they do indicate that investor confidence is returning.
Grayscale also states that the market is undergoing a new phase of ’leverage reset.’ This means many risky positions have been unwound, making the market more stable. According to Grayscale, this provides a healthy foundation for a future rally.
Grayscale analysts predict that Bitcoin could potentially set a new record before the year is out, even with the new year already in sight. They expect 2026 to break all crypto records.
Other Analysts Also See a Break with the Bitcoin Cycle #
Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau also observes that Bitcoin is behaving differently than in previous years. He points out that recent market movements no longer fit the old four-year pattern around the halving.
The fact that Bitcoin reached a peak in this cycle before the halving is, in his view, a clear sign that the familiar rhythm is breaking down.
Puckrin emphasizes that the market has become much more mature in the meantime. Large institutional players now play a more important role than retail investors. The influence of miners has also diminished, as their reward decreases with each halving.
According to Puckrin and Grayscale, Bitcoin is at the beginning of a new phase. The old four-year cycle seems to be losing its power, while institutional interest continues to grow. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could rise further in the coming years and potentially reach a new record high in 2026.