While November is typically one of the strongest periods of the year, bitcoin is now heading toward its worst November performance in seven years. However, sentiment in the crypto market appears to be recovering, and some analysts are increasingly convinced that this weak month could usher in a new phase.
Worst November Since 2018 for Bitcoin #
With a loss of nearly 17%, bitcoin is on track to close November as one of the most negative months since 2018. The price is hovering around $91,000 and struggling to break through resistance levels. Only November 2018 was worse, when the price plummeted more than 36% during the deep bear market year following the 2017 hype.
Yet various market observers see an opportunity. Nick Ruck of LVRG says that such significant movements often mark the end of a phase where overleveraged positions and weak projects are ‘wiped out’.
“This capitulation offers smart investors a chance to re-enter,” according to Ruck.
He expects that especially long-term investors now see room to quietly build positions toward 2026. The traditional bitcoin cycle also plays a role in market expectations.
Where previous years showed that October, November, and December were often green months, 2025 is proving to be an exception. This is partly because the spot bitcoin ETFs in the US already set the market in motion early this year, shifting the rhythm of previous cycles.
Crypto Market Sentiment Shows Cautious Recovery #
Although the price is still far from $100,000, market sentiment is notably picking up again. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved up to 25 points this week, still “extreme fear,” but a clear improvement compared to two weeks ago when the index had a value of 10.
It seems for the first time that the market dares to look upward again and expects recovery. The question, however, is how quickly this will happen and to what price point.
Traders are now mainly looking at the zone around $93,000 to $94,000. Crypto analyst Ted writes that a convincing recovery above those levels could just clear the way toward $100,000 “before further downward movements.”
On the other hand, even outspoken bulls are moderating their expectations. Tom Lee, who held on to a price target of $250,000 for almost the entire year, now sees bitcoin closing the year around $100,000 and perhaps even around the price record of $125,100.