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As Black Friday and Thanksgiving approach, the so-called ‘crypto-Thanksgiving effect’ resurfaces annually. While discounts clearly impact consumers and retailers, the influence on the crypto market remains largely a persistent myth. Nevertheless, there are patterns, expectations, and a notable role for Bitcoin during this period. So what do these days actually do to the market?
Thanksgiving Effect #
Around Thanksgiving, trading volume on the stock market almost always declines because many American traders are inactive. Major retail sales figures play a role for stocks, but not for crypto. Cryptocurrencies do not react to company revenue, as their price is not tied to profit figures.
As a result, Thanksgiving usually has no direct effect on coins like Bitcoin. Trading activity is sometimes lower as people are busy with family and Black Friday deals, but this rarely leads to significant price swings.
Bitcoin’s Performance in Recent Years #
2020-2022: The price usually didn’t do much. In 2022, the coin even fell, primarily due to larger events like the FTX scandal. The coin started November strongly, around $21,000, but ended the month with a loss of nearly 25%, at $16,000.
2023: The opposite happened. Due to strong expectations surrounding Bitcoin ETFs, the market recovered significantly. Bitcoin started the week around $37,000 and ended the month almost nine percent higher. This movement had little to do with Thanksgiving itself and everything to do with positive market expectations.
2024: Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $93,000 just before Thanksgiving following Donald Trump’s election victory. This led to optimism, but also uncertainty. Around Thanksgiving itself, the price recovered slightly.
What Will Happen This Year? #
For this year, the main question is whether Bitcoin can make a strong move around this period. Analysts see a striking resemblance between the current Bitcoin chart and a key phase of the S&P 500 index from the past, which resulted in an enormous surge.
According to these comparisons, Bitcoin is now on a long-term support line and close to a zone where major breakouts occurred previously. If this pattern holds, a new, powerful upward trend could follow, but there is no certainty.
The market is divided, but the charts suggest that a bigger moment may be in the making. Thanksgiving itself is unlikely to be the deciding factor.