Brad Garlinghouse is cheerfully calling for Bitcoin to soar to $180,000 (about €155,000) in 2026, while analysts at JPMorgan are talking about $170,000 (€145,000) as the new standard for ‘digital gold’.
Let me get straight to the point: the reality on the ground looks very different right now. The bulls are screaming their lofty price targets from the rooftops, but the data calls for caution. In this article, I’ll bring you up to speed so you understand what game is really being played.
Let’s be honest: we’ve now been in a bear market for over two months. I’ve seen these kinds of cycles before and want to make sure you don’t get caught on the wrong side. Instead of living on hopeful tweets, I’d rather show you what the market is actually telling us.
 **Related Video: Bitcoin crash explained: why this dip is actually a bull market signal**The Hard Reality vs. The Fantasy #
The contrast could hardly be greater. On one hand, you have the fantasies of $180,000 Bitcoin and altcoins that supposedly still have an easy 5x to go. On the other, we have the facts. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing significant net outflows.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that ‘smart money’ is barely participating. It’s mainly retail, the small investor, who is currently scaling in. That’s often not a good sign, and there is significant turmoil on the crypto market.
Surveys even show that fewer Americans are willing to take risks at all. Bitcoin’s role as a safe ‘hedge’ is being openly questioned. The market is currently running entirely on hope, without a convincing institutional floor. The structure I see looks more like an early bear market than a fresh bull run.
 **Related Video: China ‘does it again’ and sends the bitcoin price into a free fall**Are the Big Players Pushing Bitcoin to $110,000? #
Does this mean we’re only going down? No, and that’s precisely where it gets dangerous.
The numbers show something simple: up to around $110,000, Bitcoin could still go up. That’s where a number of targets lie that the market often moves towards.
But be careful: this could also be a trap. The idea is that people get enthusiastic again and start betting on a rise. If the price then has collected enough orders around $110,000, a so-called ‘liquidity grab’, large parties will have enough room to push the price down.
The Fed as Bitcoin’s Lifeline? #
And then we have December 10, the day on which a potential interest rate cut by the Fed could take place. About 87 percent of the market expects it, which means it’s largely priced in.
Will this be Bitcoin’s salvation? Probably not. We could see a short rally, but if the market does what I expect, this is just fuel for that last fake-out to the upside. If we don’t get that rate cut? Then that’s not priced in, and we can expect a hard dump.
My Scenario and Strategy #
I’m not getting carried away by theoretical models from JPMorgan or the hype around XRP. If this is indeed a bear market, we will only see the bottom around October 2026. So, no $180,000 for Bitcoin at the end of 2026.
Don’t get carried away by the hype of the day. We can still rise a bit to grab that liquidity, but don’t fall for the trap that the bull market is starting again. Play the game smart.
My plan is simple and based on patience. I see a structure in which we will eventually seek lower regions. I have my sights set on the zone between $65,000 and $55,000. That’s where I will try to scale in for 80 percent.
If real panic breaks out, for example if MicroStrategy is forced to sell or if we enter a recession, I am considering a scenario around the $44,000 mark.
Disclaimer: My videos are based solely on my personal experiences and knowledge. Always do your own research. My videos are NOT financial advice.