We’re at a crossroads this week. On one hand, we’re seeing world news that would normally send Bitcoin straight to an all-time high. Major banks are getting involved, and more and more countries are accepting Bitcoin.
But be cautious. When I look at the charts, I see red flags we can’t ignore. Why am I still 70% bearish despite all the adoption? And why is that $100,000 level a much bigger obstacle than everyone thinks? Let’s dive in.
The Land of Messi and Maradona Embraces Bitcoin #
Let’s start on a positive note. French banking giant BPCE recently announced it will integrate buying and selling crypto directly into its banking app. This gives millions of customers access to Bitcoin. But I’ll keep repeating: ‘not your keys, not your coins.’ If you don’t control the private keys yourself, you don’t ultimately have real control over your cryptocurrencies. I’m willing to say this a million times if I have to.
It’s important to understand the difference between ‘self custody’ and keeping your assets with a bank. This also applies to crypto. Imagine you buy Bitcoin in a banking app. If you can’t send it to an external wallet, you don’t own the crypto yourself. You’re just holding an IOU, and there’s no self-custody involved.
Then there’s Argentina, the land of Messi, Maradona, and Milei. In the capital, Buenos Aires, you’ll soon be able to pay your taxes with Bitcoin. This is exactly what I’ve been saying for years: governments don’t necessarily have to buy a cryptocurrency to own it. They can receive it through taxes or services.
Governments are increasingly realizing they need to participate in this ‘gold rush’: whether by buying, collecting taxes, or through seizures.
“In the land of Messi and Maradona, you’ll soon be able to pay taxes with Bitcoin.”
Why I’m Cautious About the Crypto Market #
Despite the important news from France and Argentina, we need to look realistically at the charts. On the 4-hour chart, we see that Bitcoin is having enormous trouble breaking through the $91,000 barrier. This is a stubborn resistance.
Looking at the trend, i.e., higher lows and higher highs, we are bullish in the short term. But if the BTC price doesn’t break $91,000, I see a fallback to $89,000 or even $81,000.
Even more worrying is the ‘Gaussian Channel’ on the 5-day chart. This indicator draws a price channel with a ‘smooth’ average line and an upper and lower band. Dropping below that channel usually means the trend is clearly downward, which often corresponds to a bear market. We have to break back into that channel, but that is a huge task.
Also, on the monthly chart, we are below the ’12 monthly moving average’. Historically, closing a candle below this line has been the starting signal for a bear market. We’ve been trying to break through it for months now, but we’re not succeeding. As long as we don’t reclaim that line, the signals remain red for me.
Mixed Signals for Bitcoin #
Is it all doom and gloom? No, fortunately not. For example, the Russell 2000 ETF is breaking out, and that’s a good sign. In the past, this often meant a rally for Bitcoin. Simply put, the signals are currently extremely mixed.
It’s important to determine if you’re a trader or an investor. As an investor, I zoom out. We’ve spent 1900 days in the range between $10,000 and $100,000. I expect we will also spend more than 1000 days in the range between $100,000 and $1 million. Anything you buy below $100,000 now will, I think, be profitable in the long term.
Despite everything, I’m still 70% bearish. That $100,000 level for BTC is a psychological and technical stumbling block that is bigger than we think.
The Lesson of the Shepherd #
I’d like to close with a quote to think about:
“The sheep fears the wolf its whole life, but is ultimately eaten by the shepherd.”
The sheep represents the people. The wolf is the enemy we are taught to fear by the system. The shepherd is the system we are supposed to trust. Don’t be ‘sheeple’. Use your intelligence.
The same applies to Bitcoin. For years, ‘the shepherds’ (banks and governments) told us to be afraid of this cryptocurrency and that it was a scam. And who is buying Bitcoin or integrating it into their apps now? Exactly, those same shepherds.
Enjoy this week, manage your portfolio wisely, and only invest what you’re willing to lose.
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