Experts Are Cautiously Optimistic About the Start of the New Year

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An image of New Year’s fireworks during New Year’s Eve

Foto: Kapustin Igor / Shutterstock.com

The Bitcoin market is showing a wait-and-see attitude as the year draws to a close. Crypto investors often hope for a Santa rally around this period, but market data this time points to restraint.

Traders appear to be shifting their expectations primarily to early 2026, while the short term is characterized by limited liquidity and moderate optimism.

Data from the options platform Laevitas shows that many positions are focused on limited price movements in the coming weeks. Although more bets are being placed on a Bitcoin price increase than a decrease, they mainly involve strategies that profit from small to medium price movements. This indicates that market participants do not expect a strong breakout before the end of the year.

The Fed’s Recent Interest Rate Decision
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The recent interest rate decision by the U.S. central bank plays a role in this. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates this week and announced it would purchase additional short-term government bonds to support liquidity in the financial system.

Historically, lower interest rates are favorable for risky assets like stocks and crypto, but that effect seems to be limited in the short term. At the same time, volatility is decreasing, which suggests that large price fluctuations are less expected in the short term.

Seasonal influences reinforce this picture. The period around Christmas and New Year is known as a phase with lower trading volumes in the crypto market. Less active trading often means that price movements subside more quickly and trends are harder to sustain.

Long-Term Market Expectations
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For the longer term, expectations are clearly more positive. In the options market, there is a growing interest in positions that expire only in the first quarter of 2026. These are bets on significantly higher price levels than today.

This aligns with broader market expectations that factors such as further institutional adoption, potential approvals of new financial products, and looser monetary policy could be positive for Bitcoin in the coming years.

Bitcoin is currently trading around €79,000, moving below recent highs. The market seems to be stabilizing for now, with investors looking ahead to developments in 2026 rather than a strong year-end rally.