ING Sees Room for Higher Yields on US Government Bonds #
Photo: Milos Ruzicka (Shutterstock)
The yield on US government bonds remains attractive to investors, with current levels around 4 to 4.1 percent, according to a report by ING Bank. While these bonds have shown resilience despite disappointing employment figures, ING analysts also point to potential future increases. What does this mean for the crypto market?
Bad News for Crypto? #
US government bonds are yielding around 4 to 4.1 percent, according to a report from Dutch bank ING. But the bank also sees opportunities for higher yields on these bonds. This is often seen as a negative signal for crypto trading, as investors can then achieve higher returns with much less risk.
Furthermore, the report suggests that a temporary short-term dip is possible, but it is likely that yields on these bonds will rise structurally in the new year.
Employment #
The US employment report showed negative figures, with a loss of 32,000 jobs. This has been a recurring issue in the US for some time. June, August, and September also saw negative figures. This contrasts with last year, when there were mostly gains.
US government bonds have shown some resilience against weak job numbers. With fewer immigrants entering, job growth is less critical. Increased productivity, such as through AI, has also made employment growth less important.
The Challenger job report, which tracks jobs in the private and public sectors, paints a much bleaker picture. More than 1.1 million jobs were lost, mainly in department stores, AI, and government layoffs. The report cites cost reduction for companies and the government as the main reason. In particular, the DOGE strategy to lay off government employees has resulted in approximately 300,000 job losses.
Other Macroeconomic Factors #
The yield around 4 percent held steady despite job losses. Import prices remained largely unchanged despite tariffs. Export prices rose 3.8 percent, the highest figure since 2021-2022 when it was 15 percent. Other economic factors also failed to make a dent in the current bond yields.
According to ING, there are too few good reasons to fall below 4 percent. There is also some reluctance to go above 4.1 percent. ING sees a temporary dip around the turn of the year as realistic, but temporary. In 2026, they see a structural breakout upwards as most likely. If this happens, it could lead to further declines in the crypto market.