Exactly one year after Strategy reached its all-time high, the sentiment surrounding the company is completely different. The sharp drop in bitcoin to €71,500 is once again putting pressure on Michael Saylor and his bold strategy.
Bitcoin’s price decline of more than 30 percent since this year’s peak is causing unrest, but it is Strategy that is taking the hardest hits. The stock has fallen more than 40 percent this week, bringing the company into a critical phase.
Strategy Falling Faster Than Bitcoin #
While bitcoin is falling sharply, Strategy is performing even worse. The stock is now 68 percent lower than its July level, and analysts see this as a serious warning. The stock is now in its second-worst downturn since the company decided in 2020 to add bitcoin to its corporate reserves.
As reported last month, Saylor is far from finished buying bitcoin. Strategy now holds 649,870 bitcoin at an average purchase price of €64,500. At the current price, only a thin profit margin remains. A further decline of 15 percent would mean the company is at a loss on its bitcoin reserves for the first time in years.
Saylor Remains Unfazed #
Michael Saylor himself remains optimistic. In an interview, he said that Strategy is indestructible and could even withstand an 80 to 90 percent drop. According to him, bitcoin only needs to rise by 1.25 percent annually for the company to continue paying dividends.
However, the short-term reality remains harsh. The strong correction this week has wiped out a large part of the 2025 rally. With the price around €72,000, not only market confidence is at stake, but also the credibility of Saylor’s long-term strategy.
Potential Index Exclusion #
Technical indicators show no improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator that signals whether a stock is overbought or oversold, is dipping further, creating more selling pressure. Some analysts foresee further downside towards €100 per share, while others even warn of double-digit prices if sentiment continues to deteriorate.
On top of that, banks like JPMorgan are warning of an additional danger. According to their analysts, there is a chance that major stock indices like the MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100 will drop Strategy. This would trigger a significant chain reaction among investors, as index funds would be forced to sell the stock.
JPMorgan estimates that such an exclusion from the Nasdaq 100 alone could lead to an outflow of around €2.4 billion. If this selling wave were to materialize while bitcoin continues to fall, the pressure on the stock could become much greater.