We’ve had a downright bizarre week. While the U.S. central bank once again pumped billions into the heart of the financial system to prevent panic, something happened that left me stunned.
Precisely at the moment silver was attempting to break through a fifty-year-old record, the lights went out at the CME. Screens went black, trading was halted. Coincidence? Let’s be honest: in this market, I no longer believe in coincidence.
While bitcoin is struggling and analysts are debating whether we’re already in a bear market, I see a very different game being played on the world stage. In this article, I’ll walk you through what the data is really telling us: from manipulated silver markets to a changing bitcoin cycle heading toward 2026.
The Mystery of the ‘Broken’ Silver Market #
Let’s start with that remarkable event. Silver was on the verge of breaking through $51. We hadn’t seen this level since 1980. And right then, the CME, the heart of price discovery, went offline for ten hours due to a ‘cooling problem’ in a data center.
I’ve been following this for years, and I can tell you: data centers have backup upon backup. For a system to be down for ten hours during a historic breakout is highly suspicious.
The Western silver market runs on a ‘fractional reserve’ basis: there are far more paper claims than physical bars. This means there are many more silver ‘promised’ on paper through contracts and claims than there is actual physical silver (bars) available to deliver. An explosive price increase could cause this house of cards to collapse.
Halting trading likely gave parties just enough breathing room to find liquidity and prevent a total meltdown. This smells like a desperate move, not a technical glitch.
The Economic Engine Is Sputtering #
Meanwhile, we’re seeing cracks in the real economy. U.S. job figures have fallen for the first time in two years, while unemployment is rising. JPMorgan speaks of a ‘K-shaped’ expansion: the stock market and AI stocks are soaring, but the real economy is weakening.
This puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot. They have to cut interest rates to save the economy, but in doing so, they’re just pouring oil on the inflationary fire. My conclusion? They are sacrificing the value of the dollar (and the euro) to keep the system running. Elon Musk put it aptly last week:
Energy is the only real currency; the rest is printable.
This Is My Mantra #
My mantra remains and will always be “own assets or be left behind.” You must own everything the government cannot print. Central banks understand this. In October, they bought another 53 tons of gold, despite record prices. They are preparing for a reset or a prolonged crisis. If they are hoarding gold as insurance, why wouldn’t you?
Keeping money in your savings account in this climate, with rising national debts and structural inflation, is the surest way to get poorer.
Don’t get distracted by daily price swings or technical glitches. The system is under pressure, debts are spiraling out of control, and institutions are positioning themselves. Make sure you’re on the right side of the line.
Bitcoin: Bear Market or the Calm Before the Storm? #
Then there’s bitcoin. The price is falling, sentiment is poor, and short-term holders are selling at record losses. At first glance, the party seems to be over. But if we look deeper, I see something else. Exchange reserves, or bitcoin on exchanges, are at a low point. In two years, long-term investors have pulled 400,000 BTC off the exchanges.
Furthermore, institutions are making a 180-degree turn. Vanguard, which was fiercely against crypto, is now suddenly offering crypto ETFs. Bank of America is advising clients to get into digital assets. Do you think these giants are getting into a dead market? Of course not. They smell money.
The Bitcoin Cycle Is Changing #
Perhaps we need to adjust our perspective. Raoul Pal suggests that bitcoin no longer purely follows the four-year ‘halving cycle,’ but the broader ‘business cycle.’ By this, he means that BTC no longer neatly peaks every 4 years due to the halving, but moves in line with the longer economic cycle, which has been extended by central bank money injections.
This would mean we won’t see the real peak now, but only towards 2026. The current weakness is not a bear market, but an extended accumulation phase. A phase in which the impatient investor exits and the ‘smart money’ scoops up cryptocurrencies en masse.