This week is packed with crucial macroeconomic events that could steer the financial markets. According to analysts at The Kobeissi Letter, the following agenda items are the most important this week. In particular, figures on growth, inflation, and the labor market play a key role. What should you watch for this week?
Tuesday: Labor Market #
Tuesday is all about growth and the labor market, with the release of U.S. Retail Sales for October and the jobs report for November. Retail Sales provide insight into the strength of the consumer, who remains the most important driver of the U.S. economy. Strong figures could indicate continued economic resilience, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer. For the crypto market, this often means pressure on risky assets, as higher rates strengthen the dollar and limit liquidity.
The jobs report is at least as important: figures on employment, wage growth, and unemployment directly influence inflation expectations. An overly strong labor market can lead to falling crypto and stock prices, while signs of cooling could provide room for recovery.
Thursday: Inflation and Industry #
On Thursday, attention shifts to inflation and the industrial sector. The CPI inflation data for November is one of the most widely followed macro indicators globally. This data largely determines how investors price in the Fed’s future interest rate policy. A lower-than-expected CPI could trigger a rally in bitcoin and altcoins, as the market would then speculate on rate cuts in 2026.
At the same time, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for December will be released, providing a picture of the health of the U.S. industry. A weak index could signal economic slowdown, which is negative for growth on one hand, but could be positive for crypto on the other if it forces the Fed to adopt a more dovish tone.
Friday: Sentiment and More Data #
Friday will be the busiest day of the week with a flood of data. The PCE inflation for October is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure and can cause significant market movements.
Additionally, figures on existing home sales will be released, offering insight into the impact of high interest rates on the housing market. The University of Michigan will also publish both inflation expectations and consumer confidence.
This sentiment data is important because it shows how consumers are pricing in future price increases. Furthermore, five Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, which could cause additional volatility.
Together, all these agenda items create a week in which macroeconomic signals could strongly determine the direction of the crypto market.