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Lyn Alden is a well-known macroeconomist who frequently shares her insights. According to the American economist, a major crash for bitcoin is unlikely in the short term. In the podcast What Bitcoin Did, she explains that the market is currently far from showing the same euphoria seen during previous peak moments in past bitcoin cycles.
Crypto investors are less extremely optimistic than they were back then. The market is not ‘overheated’ yet, which makes the chance of a sudden massive sell-off much smaller, Alden argues. During such a ‘capitulation,’ investors panic sell their bitcoin, causing the price to plummet.
Lack of Euphoria Has Its Advantages #
Alden emphasizes that this cycle is unfolding differently than previous ones. According to her, the market is no longer primarily driven by the four-year bitcoin halving, but by broader macro factors and growing interest in bitcoin itself. Broad macro factors are major economic developments, such as inflation and interest rate hikes or cuts.
This phase could last longer than many traders expect. Other players share Alden’s vision. For instance, Matt Hougan of Bitwise previously stated that the classic four-year cycle is “no longer leading for the time being” and that the crypto market may be in for several good years. Watch the conversation with top economist Alden here:
Not Everyone Is Convinced #
However, there are also dissenting voices. For example, Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, predicts that bitcoin could fall by 65 to 70 percent in the next two years. Alden points out in the conversation that markets rarely move as extremely as investors fear:
“It’s usually not as great as people hope and not as disastrous as they fear.”
At the same time, the price of bitcoin is currently down about 21 percent over the past 30 days. The cryptocurrency fell from an all-time high of around €106,500 on October 5 to a recent low of around €73,500 this month.
Investors Search for Direction #
Due to the recent price decline, uncertainty prevails among crypto investors. Many traders were counting on a strong year-end rally or a higher price recovery. Yet, Alden argues that investors should stop thinking that every downward movement is automatically followed by a bull market. “People think they are entitled to a bull market,” she said. “But no one is entitled to that.”
Despite her cautious tone, the top economist remains optimistic for the medium term. She expects bitcoin to again touch the $100,000 mark (approximately €86,800) in 2026 and possibly reach a new record high. If that doesn’t happen, a new all-time high might not arrive until 2027.