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Traditional Santa Rally Eludes Markets This Year

An image of a Christmas tree next to the New York Stock Exchange

December is typically a month of optimism on financial markets. But this year feels different. A nervous mood hangs over both the crypto market and Wall Street. XRP and bitcoin are hovering around crucial levels, while the Nasdaq is showing a potential topping pattern. The big question is whether Santa will leave the markets behind this year.

XRP Under Pressure
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XRP, the payment token associated with Ripple, took a significant hit this week. The price has fallen by over 6% and is hovering around €1.74. This level is not arbitrary; it acts as a critical support line. Since last year, the price has often bounced back from this area after sharp declines.

On the chart, this is visible in the long wicks below the candlesticks: the price dips, but buyers consistently step in around the €1.75 mark. If this support holds this time, another recovery could follow. However, if XRP drops decisively below €2, there’s a risk that many investors will lose confidence and exit en masse, leading to a more prolonged downturn.

Bitcoin Also Struggles with Resistance
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Meanwhile, Bitcoin is hovering around €75,000, having pulled back from its recent record high just above €107,000. Below the current price lies a three-layer support net: an ascending trendline that has been in place since 2023, the 100-week moving average, and an important Fibonacci zone.

As long as this package of support holds, optimists can continue to dream of a new assault on the all-time high. But if this floor breaks, attention will quickly shift to the April low around €60,000 and even the previous record area just below it. Some traders are already pricing in rates below €70,000 in the first months of 2026, while others see this as a buying opportunity in an ongoing bull market.

Nasdaq Also Shows Warning Signs
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As if that weren’t enough, the Nasdaq is flashing a classic warning signal. On the monthly chart, a so-called “hanging man” pattern has appeared: a small body near the top of the candle with a long lower shadow. This indicates that there was significant selling pressure during the month, even though the index closed near its high.

Such a pattern, appearing shortly after new all-time highs, is often seen as a potential top or at least a sign that the uptrend is losing momentum. And because bitcoin has often moved in tandem with U.S. tech stocks in recent years, this is not a good sign for crypto investors.

The Familiar Santa Rally
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Normally, investors hope for a so-called Santa rally in December: a final sprint higher, driven by positive sentiment and FOMO. This year, that is far from certain. XRP is fighting to hold €2, Bitcoin is balancing above its safety net, and the Nasdaq is showing a potential topping pattern. It remains to be seen if Santa will bring gifts to the financial markets this year.