The first week of December could be a volatile one for the crypto market. Several key macroeconomic signals from the United States are set to be released in the coming days.
Macroeconomic factors are becoming increasingly important for the crypto market, and these events could trigger significant movements—positive or negative—for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset space.
Jerome Powell’s Speech #
Tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address the markets. Expectations for a new interest rate cut have increased significantly in recent weeks. The market is now waiting in suspense to see if this will be confirmed.
This will be Powell’s final speech before his departure. His successor has not yet been announced, though Trump has stated he has made a choice but is keeping his cards close to his chest for now.
PCE Inflation Figures #
The week concludes with what may be the most important data: the PCE inflation index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This report, released on Friday, is seen as the decisive factor for the upcoming interest rate meeting.
A soft inflation reading would confirm that disinflation is continuing and further strengthen the case for a rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a cut currently stands at 87.6%. However, if inflation comes in higher than expected, it could immediately throw a wrench in the works and put renewed pressure on the market.
ADP Jobs Report #
On Wednesday, the ADP Employment report will be released, showing how many new jobs were added in the private sector. The previous report was weak, with only 42,000 new jobs.
Strong growth could push the probability of a rate cut lower, which often puts negative pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, weak numbers could have the opposite effect: a higher chance of monetary easing, which typically supports risk assets like crypto. The ADP report is being watched especially closely this time, as analysts expect the AI sector to play a notable role in the employment figures.
Initial Jobless Claims #
On Thursday, the weekly initial jobless claims will follow. This figure shows how many Americans are applying for unemployment benefits for the first time, an indicator of the labor market’s health.
Rising claims point to a cooling economy and increase calls for rate cuts. If the numbers fall, however, the Fed may feel more comfortable holding the current interest rate steady. Bitcoin typically reacts quickly to this data, as liquidity expectations change directly with it.
In addition to these events, more reports are due this week. The Kobeissi Letter published this list of five other key events.