The FOMC meeting is on the horizon, signaling a busy day for the markets. As central banks gear up for tonight’s event, I’ve noticed a large entity recently moving 43,500 Bitcoin towards exchanges. This often raises questions, but as always, I let the charts determine what the news truly means.
The rest of this week’s agenda is relatively quiet. Everything revolves around the FOMC meeting at 8:00 PM. The market is almost entirely pricing in a rate cut from 4% to 3.75%. However, the real impact will come from Jerome Powell’s words during the press conference.
43,500 Bitcoin Transfer and Market Interpretation #
I’m getting a lot of questions about that large Bitcoin transfer. However, large players like 21 Capital frequently move their holdings between wallets, for example, to optimize security or management. Such a move doesn’t necessarily mean immediate selling pressure. I often see traders get unnecessarily agitated by this, while the charts usually quickly clarify whether it’s actual distribution.
At the same time, such alerts remain relevant as a sentiment trigger, especially around major macro events like the FOMC meeting. That’s why I always evaluate them in combination with liquidity, volume, and the technical structure.
Crypto and Market Expectations #
Furthermore, there’s a persistent rumor that Powell might announce $45 billion in T-bill purchases, a mild form of quantitative easing. Such hints could push the market forward, but could just as easily lead to a classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ reaction. If it doesn’t materialize, it could cause disappointment.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price remains remarkably stable, especially compared to the strong green days of the S&P 500. Sentiment indicators even show the market is extremely negative. Historically, this often points to temporary bottoms.
Therefore, I’m accounting for at least a relief rally towards the zone around $110,000. A new price record towards $130,000 remains possible, though it depends on reactions to macro news and liquidity levels.
Bitcoin and Liquidity #
For me, the heatmaps remain an important signal. Liquidity is piling up around $126,000 to $130,000 and below that around $94,000 to $95,000. I see the latter level as a potential point for a short liquidity grab during or just before the FOMC meeting.
On the monthly chart, the Bitcoin network is nicely holding its 20 moving average. The weekly chart shows that old resistance has once again become support, keeping us in a clear range. Often, such a phase is accompanied by a liquidity hunt at the bottom before a real trend reversal can follow.
Expectations for the Coming Days #
On the daily chart, I’m seeing weakness: a downward channel with a potential rising wedge, decreasing volume, and strong resistance around the golden pocket region at $98,000. Therefore, in the short term, I’m expecting a liquidity grab followed by a move downwards. For longs, I’m mainly looking around $83,000 or after taking out the last low.
Shorter timeframes do show a possible ascending triangle, but it first needs to break out with convincing volume. Until then, I remain cautious. Patience remains essential; the market always offers opportunities, but only when the plan is leading.